The Weather Blog

Tropics Brewing Yet Again

This hurricane season has been relatively active so far, atleast according to the predictions at the beginning of Hurricane season.

Fortunately, besides Humberto, the United States has missed out on any hurricanes making landfall.

This evening, there is an interesting feature brewing in the western Atlantic near Florida.

This feature, (labeled #1 in the figure) is something that could develop into a tropical system in the coming days.  Right now, it is just an upper low spinning around bringing rain to parts of Florida and the Bahamas.  However, there is the potential for this system to develop an area of low pressure at the surface.  If this happens, this could become our 14th named storm this year.  The next name on the list is Noel.

This has our attention because the steering currents would take this system off to the west through the northern Gulf of Mexico.  As you well know, once a system gets in the Gulf, anything can happen.

Another interesting thing about this feature is that it could have an impact as to whether or not we get a cold front next weekend.  If the cold front can make it this far south, it would more than likely take this tropical feature into the Gulf coast states of Mississsippi and Alabama.  However, if the front does not get much of a push to the south, then this would allow our disturbance to track further towards the west, possibly having an impact on our weather.

Needeless to say, next weekend could be interesting as we could see a strong cold front or a tropical system.  Stay tuned.

Really Cold Air?

A strong cold front could blast through East Texas....on October 10th?!? More details soon!

Hurricane Rita Anniversary

Today marks the two year anniversary of Hurricane Rita. She was a storm that none of us will ever forget. From the wind, rain, and the people, Rita left her mark on East Texas. I feel we are better educated because of Rita and if another hurricane heads our way, we will be ready.

Lots going on in the tropics. In our own backyard, there is an area of low pressure in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It has gotten much better organized today and hurricane hunters will be investigating this feature later today. If something does develop, computer models have it going into Mexico or lower Texas coast. We will need to watch closely. Another disturbance is moving into the Caribbean. The conditions ahead of this system are not good so it may have a hard time organizing. The third feature is in the middle of the Atlantic. It is a big area of low pressure that could become a hurricane by the end of the week. Keep in mind, hurricane season last through November and we can always see big time hurricanes in October!

Still Watching Invest 93

The area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is trying very hard to get organized today. The main problem is the system is a cold core and has to transition into a warm core system to be classified as tropical. This process takes atleast 24-36 hours. So rapid development is not expected right now. The computer models continue showing the storm hitting New Orleans by late Friday into Saturday, keeping away from East Texas. However, until the storm becomes a tropical system, I would not put much stock in the models right now. Things will more than likely change. You got to love hurricane season!

Invest 93

On Monday nights weathercasts, I mentioned an area of showers and storms off the coast of Florida. Today, the National Hurricane Center has called this area Invest 93. What does "Invest" mean? It stands for investigation. The hurricane center will label areas that could soon develop into tropical systems by naming them invest, followed by the numbers 90-99. Usually, when features are named invests, that means something will form in the next few days.

So how is this system going to form? Right now it is an upper level low that causing the turning in the atmosphere and rain over Florida. The upper low will move westward and emerge in the eastern Gulf by Thursday. This is where we expect the upper low to build down to the surface, forming a circulation near the surface of the Gulf. This will then become a tropical depression or a storm by Friday. What I am concerned with is the Gulf of Mexico has not had any big hurricanes in it this year. So conditions are ideal for rapid development. Where does it go from here? Well, you will have to check back Wednesday as I want to wait and see what happens in the next 24 hours. All I can say is that we cannot count out a Texas coast landfall. 

Power of Lightning

This picture was sent in from a viewer in Huntington, Christy Nerren. It is an awesome shot of lightning hitting the top of a building at Huntington ISD about two weeks ago. She said the phone system was out for a week. This is why we tell you to stay in doors when storms are around. If you would like to share your weather shots, send them to weather@ktre.com.

Recap of Humberto

Hurricane Humberto grew faster than any storm on record from tropical depression to full-scale hurricane landfall. Below are key
events in its 16-hour development.
- Saturday: The system that eventually became Humberto was a disorganized collection of showers and thunderstorms stretching
from Cuba west over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
- 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday: The system organized into a tropical
depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Its center was
about 85 miles off the Texas coast, and it was already dropping
rain on that state and Louisiana.
- 2 p.m. Wednesday: The depression strengthened into Tropical
Storm Humberto with winds of 45 mph, 6 mph above the limit to be
named. Its center was about 70 miles off the coast.
- 1:15 a.m. Thursday: Humberto strengthened into a hurricane
with winds of 80 mph. Its center was about 15 miles offshore, close
enough to possibly bring hurricane-force winds to land. Tropical
storm-force winds extended up to 60 miles from the center.
- 3 a.m.: Humberto made landfall just east of High Island,
Texas, with 85-mph winds.

Tropical Depression #9...now Tropical Storm Humberto!

We now have Tropical Storm Humberto about 100 mph off the Texas coast. The system is moving very slowly to the northwest and looks to make landfall sometime late tonight or early Thursday. Winds should not be that big of a factor. The big concern is flooding. After the heavy rains so far this year, more rain will lead to flooding. The forecast calls for the storm to continue moving north-northeast very very slowly. Some computer models stall the system out right over us. This could lead to constant rains through the weekend. This situation is very similar to Tropical Storm Allison so we will need to watch very closely.

September Fronts on the Move

While the first official day of fall is still nearly two weeks away, we will get an early appetizer this week as not one, but two cool fronts will invade East Texas.

The first front is scheduled to arrive on Tuesday afternoon.  It will bring some widespread rain to the area before departing late Tuesday evening.  Behind the front, skies will clear out and dry out as we return the sunshine by Wednesday.

So just how big of a drop will we see in the temperatures?  Well, it really won't be a significant drop like many of you would like to see.  Daytime highs will reach the upper 80's, but overnight lows will be more noticeable as they drop into the mid and upper 60's.  The main affects we will feel from this front is drier air which means lower humidity.

But we just don't have one front this week.  Another, more stronger front, will move in by the Friday time frame bringing slightly more cooler air than the one scheduled to arrrive tomorrow.

The cause for these early season fronts is a dip in the Polar Jet Stream.  While most of the cooler air will stay well to our north and northeast, we will at least feel a glancing blow from these fronts this week.

Hopefully these early season fronts will be a sign of things to come as we head towards the end of the month and into October. 

East Coast Hurricane?

There is an area of low pressure off the east coast of the U.S. that we are watching very closely. It formed from an old cold front that pushed off the east coast several days ago. Sometimes these features can transition from a subtropical system to a tropical system. The main difference is a cold core vs. warm core. The center of circulation is exsposed this morning, as seen on the image the left. There is still some moderate shear over the storm that is blowing all the convection to the northeast. However, indications are that conditions will become favorable for further development over the coming days.

If the system develops into a tropical storm, it will be named Gabrielle. But where will she go? Almost every computer model is on board with the system but vary in direction. More than likely, the storm will make a loop and head west toward the east coast. It will skirt the coast of North Carolina, maybe as a hurricane, then head back out to sea. Could cause major surf and flooding for the Carolinas and Virgina. We will be tracking the system very closely and have updates in the Live Dopple 9 Hurricane Center.